With one race to go before the Chase begins, five spots remain to be claimed at Richmond.
Jamie McMurray will lock up his first career Chase berth simply by starting the race on Saturday night. For three others, it’s a little tougher – but certainly doable. Ryan Newman clinches by finishing 31st or better; Jeff Gordon by finishing 17th or better; and Paul Menard by finishing ninth or better – and that’s all regardless of who wins the race.
If there’s a repeat winner, the scenarios become less daunting. For winless drivers beyond Menard, there will be some frayed nerves. If there’s a repeat winner, Clint Bowyer is in good shape, needing only a finish of 28th or better. For those winless drivers lower in points than Bowyer, a Richmond win is realistically the only path to the Chase.
Now Or Never
This is it. For those winless drivers, there’s one more chance to find Victory Lane and lock up a spot in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, and it happens Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway (7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN). Eleven drivers have already clinched a Chase spot, assuming they start the race on Saturday. For four others – Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon and Paul Menard – certain finishes will lock up a spot no matter who wins the race. For others, it’s literally all-or-nothing. In all likelihood, it’s a win-or-else proposition.
A closer look into the fates of some of the bubble drivers (we’ll leave off Jamie McMurray, who clinches simply by starting the race):
Jeff Gordon: Gordon has finished in the top 10 in each of the last four races at Richmond, and runner-up in two of the last three at RIR. Even though he’s averaged a finish of 23.5 in the last four races of 2015, he should feel confident in his Chase chances.
Ryan Newman: Newman won at Richmond way back in 2003, and has enjoyed success there in recent races (top 10s in three of the last four). Statistically speaking, he should be back in the Chase in the hopes of repeating his Championship 4 appearance of 2014.
Paul Menard: Menard should join McMurray as a first-time Chaser. A consistent season has propelled Menard to the best points position of his career. Though he has finished outside the top 20 in the last two races, too much has to go wrong for Menard to miss out.
Clint Bowyer: This is where it gets interesting. If there’s a repeat winner, he should be good to go. The good news: 12 of the last 13 Richmond races have been won by drivers who have already locked up a Chase spot. Another bright side: Bowyer is a two-time Richmond winner.
Aric Almirola: Now we get into ‘must win’ territory, sort of. Though there are scenarios where Almirola can sneak onto the Chase Grid without a win, the reality is this: He needs a win to lock up a second consecutive Chase berth. His best Richmond finish was eighth in April of 2013.
Kasey Kahne: Kahne, too, can get in without a win – though the shots are long. Luckily for Kahne, this one sets up well. Kahne’s first NASCAR Sprint Cup win came at Richmond, and he finished sixth in April’s race.
All other drivers MUST win to get in the Chase. The best bets…
Kyle Larson: Larson has flirted with a top-10 finish in all three of his NASCAR Sprint Cup starts at Richmond, scoring finishes of 16th, 11th and 12th. He comes off his first top-10 finish (Darlington) since Indy.
Tony Stewart: The original king of the walk-off win, a Stewart victory at Richmond would quickly catapult to the top of the ‘biggest storyline of the year’ line. He’s conquered Richmond three times, most recently in 2002. He’s coming off one of his best performances of the season at Darlington, finishing 15th with 10 laps led and a driver rating of 91.0 (his third-best rating of the season).
Bonus Points Still Up For Grabs
For those 11 drivers who have locked up a Chase spot, there’s still plenty on the line – in the form of three Chase bonus points for a victory. There have been seven different winners in the last seven Richmond races – and six of those victors have already locked up a spot in the Chase.
After the race at Richmond, each Chase driver will have his/her points reset to 2,000, with three bonus points tacked on for each win during the regular season. Currently, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch, both with four wins, would enter the Chase with the most points (2,012). Busch holds the active wins lead at Richmond, with six. His brother Kurt won the first Richmond race this season, in April.
Kevin Harvick, a three-time winner at Richmond, leads the series in driver rating with a 110.9.
Kyle Busch Completes Incredible Comeback
It wasn’t long ago – early June – that Kyle Busch finished last at Michigan to dig himself an even deeper hole from which to climb. After that race, he sat winless, 173 points outside the top 30 position he needed to qualify for the Chase. Things looked grim.
Fast forward to Darlington on Sunday night – three months and four wins later. Busch has climbed all the way back and has officially clinched a spot in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, becoming the 11th driver to do so. He needed to leave Darlington with a 48-point lead over 31st. He left with an 83-point advantage.
And now, he has a better-than-average chance at entering the Chase as the top seed. If he wins at Richmond – something he’s done four times, more than any active driver – he’ll lock up the top spot and begin the Chase with 2,015 points. His last Richmond win came in April of 2012. He missed the first Richmond race of the season, recovering from a broken leg and foot that forced him to miss the first 11 races of the season.
Carl Edwards Wins Crown Jewel Race At Darlington
Carl Edwards has performed brilliantly on the sport’s biggest stages in 2015, his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing. After spending the last 10-plus seasons with Roush Fenway Racing, Edwards has captured two of NASCAR’s premier events in 2015 – the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte and Sunday’s Southern 500 at Darlington. He has now extended his streak of consecutive seasons with multiple wins to three.
And he might not be done. Edwards has enjoyed success at Richmond, winning the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup cut-off race in 2013. He has finished in the top 10 at Richmond in eight of the last 11 races.
Buescher Commands Championship Lead With Nine Races Remaining
After watching his point lead dwindle for three consecutive weeks in August, Roush Fenway Racing’s Chris Buescher needed to turn up the heat at Darlington.
And he succeeded.
Buescher placed fifth for his 11th top five this season, while his closest championship contender (Ty Dillon) finished 15th. He now leads second-place Dillon by 29 points and third-place Chase Elliott by 35 points.
On Friday, the 22-year-old Texan returns to the site of his worst finish of the 2015 season – Richmond International Raceway where he finished 20th in April – for the Virginia529 College Savings 250 (7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN). In four career starts at RIR, Buescher has two top-10 finishes with a best result of seventh last spring.