The Chase battle is tight heading into Phoenix International Raceway where the Cup Championship will be determined.
Rise Of The Phoenix: Harvick In Need Of Another Win At Arizona Track
Positioned 18 points below the cutoff line and below two other drivers for the final berth in the Championship 4 race in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, Kevin Harvick essentially needs a win in Sunday’s Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway (2 p.m. ET on NBC).
Fortunately for Harvick, all he does is win at Phoenix. In the last eight races at the one-mile track he’s visited Victory Lane six times and recorded a runner-up showing. Overall, Harvick boasts eight wins, 12 top fives, 16 top 10s and a 10.3 average finish in 27 starts at Phoenix.
The Bakersfield, California native has made the Championship 4 race in each of its two years of existence. He won the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series title in 2014 and finished runner-up to Kyle Busch last season.
If he takes the checkered flag this weekend, Harvick will become the ninth driver to win nine or more races at a single track in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series history, joining Richard Petty (six tracks), Dale Earnhardt (four tracks), Darrell Waltrip (three tracks), Cale Yarborough (two tracks), David Pearson (two tracks), Jimmie Johnson (two tracks), Jeff Gordon (Martinsville) and Rusty Wallace (Bristol).
Chase Grid And Clinch Scenarios
With only one race left in the Round of 8, here’s how the Chase Grid looks heading into Sunday’s Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway: Jimmie Johnson (clinched Championship 4 berth with win at Martinsville), Carl Edwards (clinched Championship 4 berth with win at Texas), Joey Logano (one point ahead of Matt Kenseth on the cutoff line), Kyle Busch (+1), Matt Kenseth (-1), Denny Hamlin (-2), Kevin Harvick (-18), Kurt Busch (-34).
Logano is ahead of Busch because his highest Round of 8 finish is second (Texas) compared to Busch’s highest Round of 8 finish of fifth (Martinsville and Texas).
Below are the Championship 4 clinch scenarios:
Logano (0 Wins, 4074 Points) – Would clinch on points with a second-place finish and at least one lap led. With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.
Kyle Busch (0 Wins, 4074 Points) – Would clinch on points with a second-place finish and the most laps led. With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.
The following drivers can only guarantee a clinch with a win. The could also clinch on points with help:
Kenseth (0 Wins, 4073 Points)
Hamlin (0 Wins, 4072 Points)
Harvick (0 Wins, 4056 Points)
Kurt Busch (0 Wins, 4040 Points)
From Eight To Four: The Pressure Is On At Phoenix
After Sunday’s Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway, the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup field will shrink from eight to four. Here’s how all of the drivers have fared at the one-mile Arizona track.
1. Jimmie Johnson (clinched Championship 4 berth with win at Martinsville) – In 26 starts at Phoenix, Johnson boasts four wins (second-most in track history), 15 top fives, 19 top 10s and a 7.9 average finish (best among active drivers). The No. 48 Chevrolet driver has not won at Phoenix since the track was repaved in 2011.
2. Carl Edwards (clinched Championship 4 berth with win at Texas) – Edwards has two wins, eight top fives and 13 top 10s in 24 starts at Phoenix. He finished runner-up at the one-mile track in March in an extremely tight finish where Kevin Harvick beat him to the stripe by .010 seconds – the closest margin of victory in track history.
3. Joey Logano (one point ahead of Matt Kenseth on the cutoff line) – In 15 starts at Phoenix, Logano claims no wins, three top fives, eight top 10s and a 14.0 average finish. Before finishing 18th at the one-mile track in March, he posted five consecutive top-10 finishes there.
4. Kyle Busch (+1) – Busch owns one win, five top fives and 14 top 10s in 22 starts at Phoenix. He has finished fourth in his last two races at the desert track.
5. Matt Kenseth (one point below Kyle Busch on the cutoff line) – In 27 Phoenix starts, Kenseth has one win, six top fives, 11 top 10s and a 16.3 average finish. His last top 10 in the Phoenix fall race was a seventh-place showing in 2010. Kenseth’s win came in 2002 from the 28th starting position – the furthest back in the field an active race winner has started.
6. Denny Hamlin (-2) – Hamlin claims one win, 10 top fives, 12 top 10s and an 11.0 average finish in 22 starts at Phoenix. The No. 11 Toyota driver finished third there in March and eighth last fall.
7. Kevin Harvick (-18) – Harvick boasts eight wins, 12 top fives, 16 top 10s and a 10.3 average finish in 27 starts at Phoenix. He has won six of the last eight races there and finished runner-up in last year’s fall race.
8. Kurt Busch (-34) – In 27 Phoenix starts, Busch claims one win, six top fives, 16 top 10s and a 13.4 average finish. He has placed no worse than seventh in his last 27 starts at the one-mile track.
Phoenix Spoilers
Remember, non-Chase drivers can still win races. Since the new Chase format was implemented in 2014, four of 28 races have been won by non-Chase-eligible drivers (Jimmie Johnson: Texas 2014, Texas 2015; Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Martinsville 2014, Phoenix 2015).
Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart are the only non-Chase-eligible drivers in the field who have won at Phoenix.
Phoenix Win Could Be Huge In Johnson’s Quest For 7
Although he has already clinched a berth in the Championship 4 race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, a win could pay huge dividends for Jimmie Johnson.
A visit to Victory Lane could potentially keep 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Kevin Harvick, who currently sits 18 points below the final transfer spot, out of contention for the title.
Harvick’s 7.2 average finish at Homestead ranks first all-time. He finished runner-up at the 1.5-mile track last year after winning the championship with a visit to Victory Lane there in 2014. In 15 starts at Homestead, Harvick boasts seven top fives and 13 top 10s.
In contrast, Johnson has been good, but not great at Homestead. He has never won at the South Florida track, but has posted four top fives and 10 top 10s in 15 starts there. The No. 48 Chevrolet driver has finished ninth in the last three Homestead races.
Homecoming For Bowman
Tucson, Arizona, native Alex Bowman gets a homecoming this Sunday when he travels to Phoenix International Raceway for the Can-Am 500. Bowman will be making his ninth start of the season in the No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet as a substitute for Dale Earnhardt Jr.
In his eight starts this year, Bowman has finished 26th (New Hampshire), 30th (Michigan), 10th (Chicagoland), 14th (New Hampshire), 39th (Charlotte), seventh (Kansas), 36th (Talladega) and 13th (Texas).
He has a 12.9 average start and 21.9 average finish.
Bowman, 23, is an alumnus of the NASCAR Next program. He began his career racing quarter midgets at short tracks in Arizona and California.
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Etc.:
Phoenix Provided Close Finish In March – Since the advent of electronic scoring (1993) the closest margin of victory in the NSCS at Phoenix was earlier this season (03/13/16) when Kevin Harvick beat Carl Edwards to the line by 0.010 seconds. …
Phoenix Win And NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship In The Same Season – Three drivers have won at Phoenix and captured the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship in the same season: Jimmie Johnson (2007, 2008 sweep and 2009), Dale Earnhardt (1990) and Kevin Harvick (2014).