Martinsville: Home of Eventual Champions

One word describes Jimmie Johnson’s performance at Martinsville Speedway: Phenomenal.

And even that might be understating it.

Johnson is head and shoulders above the competition at the historic, .526-mile short track in southern Virginia which hosts Sunday’s Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500 (1:30 p.m. ET ESPN, Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM Satellite Radio).

His eight victories are tops among active NASCAR Sprint Cup Series competitors. He’s the defending winner of last fall’s Martinsville race and won again in April. Johnson leads his rivals in Driver Rating (123.8) and average finish (5.3) and has finished on the lead lap in 22 consecutive events.

And – oh, yes – the five-time series champion is now the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ leader displacing Matt Kenseth. Four the fourth time, Talladega Superspeedway’s event produced a lead change in the Chase era. Wild Card track indeed. Johnson and Kenseth swapped four-point advantages as neither rival finished among the top 10 for the first time in the 2013 postseason.

The leader after six of 10 Chase races has gone on to claim the championship in six of nine seasons. Johnson did three times – from 2008-2010. The worst ranking – fourth – belongs to Tony Stewart, who erased a 19-point deficit over the final four races of 2011 to edge Carl Edwards on a tie-breaker.

Thanks to Johnson, Martinsville’s fall race is among the most reliable predictors of the championship. He won the event in his first three championship seasons (2006-2008). Stewart was the Martinsville winner two years ago.

Every Chase era champion has finished among the top 10 in Martinsville’s second event. Brad Keselowski’s sixth-place finish in 2012 is the worst by the champion. All others claimed a top five, beginning with Kurt Busch’s fourth place in 2004. Their average finish is 2.56.

Only one champion-to-be, Johnson in 2010, failed to lead at least one lap of the fall race.

While an afternoon of fender-on-fender competition might be expected to separate the champion from the ultimate runner up, that’s not necessarily the case. Eventual second-place championship finishers have won twice, posted five top-five and seven top-10 finishes and led six races. Their average finish is 7.0.

Conclusion: The championship isn’t always won at Martinsville. A poor finish, however, likely means you’ll wait another year.

Matt Kenseth lost the lead of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ at Talladega Superspeedway and trails five-time series champion Jimmie Johnson by four points.

The remaining schedule – with two of four races on 1.5-mile tracks – would appear to favor the 2003 NASCAR Sprint Cup champion. Four of Kenseth’s seven 2013 victories have come on 1.5-mile layouts.

Yet Kenseth can’t afford to look too far into the future; certainly not past Sunday’s stop at .526-mile Martinsville Speedway where the Wisconsin driver has struggled since becoming a fulltime NASCAR Sprint Cup Series competitor in 2000.

For Kenseth and Johnson, Martinsville is a study in contrasts. Johnson is the acknowledged master of the historic, southern Virginia track leading all comers in virtually every statistical category.

Not so much for Kenseth, who has yet to win in 27 starts. He has only three top fives, no poles and an average finish of 15.8 – fully 10 positions worse than Johnson. Kenseth’s average starting position of 21.2 is his worst among current NASCAR Sprint Cup tracks. The last stat is significant: 10 of the last 12 Martinsville races have been won from a starting position within the top 10.

Still. Virtually all of Kenseth’s Martinsville frustration came in his 14 seasons as a Roush Fenway Racing driver. Neither he nor his teammates excelled at the track. RFR’s last of four victories – by Kurt Busch – came in the fall of 2002.

Kenseth’s first trip to the track in the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota produced a positive counterpoint to past woes. He qualified eighth in April, finished 13th and led 96 laps – 23 more than his previous combined Martinsville total.

Since 2000, JGR’s seven Martinsville victories are second only to Hendrick Motorsports. Denny Hamlin won three consecutive races in 2009-10. The team has produced at least one top-10 finish in 16 consecutive races dating to fall 2005.

With five races to reduce a 37-point deficit, Kyle Busch got almost a third of the way there at Talladega Superspeedway by recovering from a lap down to finish fifth in Sunday’s Camping World RV Sales 500.

Busch entered the race in fifth place. He goes to Martinsville Speedway third, 26 points behind leader Jimmie Johnson. The math says it’s definitely doable.

Realistically, Busch must finish higher than Johnson and Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Matt Kenseth in the post season’s remaining four events. Beating Johnson at Martinsville is the first – and perhaps the biggest – challenge. An eight-time Martinsville winner, Johnson goes for three victories in a row on Sunday.

Busch, however, has yet to win at Martinsville. He finished second last fall and ran fifth in April’s race in which he led 56 laps. Busch’s average Martinsville finish is 16.1.

Kevin Harvick continues to contend for the championship, standing fourth and scoring the same number of points as Busch – 2,228. The Bakersfield, Calif. veteran, in his final season in the No. 29 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, has a Martinsville victory. The spring 2011 rates as the pinnacle on an up-and-down resume at the southern Virginia track.

Harvick has just three top fives and an average finish of 16.6. He was 32nd at Martinsville a year ago and 13th when the series visited in the spring.

Statistically speaking, this should be the best opportunity for Jeff Gordon to put a dent in the lead of his Hendrick Motorsports teammate. Gordon is fifth in the standings, 34 points behind Johnson. His most recent of seven Martinsville victories came in 2005 when Gordon scored a season sweep. Gordon was seventh in last year’s fall race and third in April. His Martinsville Driver Rating (120.7) and average finish (7.0) rank second only to Johnson.

Onlookers have often billed Dale Earnhardt Jr. as a restrictor plate expert – and a runner-up finish at Talladega on Sunday didn’t dispute that claim.

But maybe he doesn’t get the credit he deserves in the field of finesse. When it comes to braking and gassing and beating and banging, few can match wits with Earnhardt – especially at Martinsville.

Earnhardt has adapted to Martinsville’s unique layout throughout his career, so much so that the paper clip has statistically become his best track.

In terms of Driver Rating, where he boasts a mark of 98.8, Martinsville ranks first for Earnhardt. It’s one of three tracks at which Earnhardt surpasses a Driver Rating of 95 (the others are Michigan at 97.0 and New Hampshire a 97.3).

In terms of average finish – Martinsville ranks third for Earnhardt at 13.4. Only Bristol (11.5) and Atlanta (12.3) rank better.

Of course, there’s one hole on the Martinsville stat sheet – he has yet to win. But that seemingly will come sooner than later. Four of his last six finishes were in the top 10, including a runner-up in April of 2011.

When it comes to this year’s Chase, Brad Keselowski and Jamie McMurray are to Jesse Pinkman as Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth are to Heisenberg.

Though Keselowski and McMurray may not get the headlines, they’ve made a ton of noise, this year’s playoffs wouldn’t be the same without them – and you have to love their moxie.

For the first time since 2006, a non-Chase driver – aka “spoiler” – has won back-to-back Chase races. Prior to Keselowski’s win at Charlotte, the last spoiler to win a Chase race was Kasey Kahne in November of 2011 at Phoenix. The last time there were consecutive races won by non-Chase drivers was when Tony Stewart won at Atlanta and Phoenix during the 2006 playoffs.

There have never been three consecutive races won by “spoilers” in the 10-year history of the Chase. It could happen this year.

And Denny Hamlin’s the reason why.

Though Hamlin has slogged through a down year, Martinsville just might be the Rx he needs. He has 12 top 10s in 15 starts, and that includes four victories. He has tallied double or triple-digit lap led figures in each of the last eight Martinsville races.

And his season may be turning around. Two races ago at Charlotte, Hamlin notched his first top-10 finish since early June.

Chevrolet can clinch its 11th consecutive NSCS Manufacturers’ Championship, and 37th overall, this weekend at Martinsville. If Chevrolet’s top finishing driver finishes ahead of Toyota’s top finishing driver, Chevrolet will clinch the title in the first year of the Gen-6 race car.

Aric Almirola will run the No. 41 Ford this weekend – rather than his customary No. 43 – in honor of NASCAR Hall of Fame Inductee Maurice Petty. Petty, the chief engine builder during seven of Petty Enterprises’ championships, ran nine of his 26 career races in the No. 41. The last time the No. 43 was not in a race was Oct. 27, 2003 at Atlanta (Jeff Green failed to qualify for the race).

 Juan Pablo Montoya will make milestone start No. 250 in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.